Maputo, 4 Mar (AIM) – The British consulting firm Oxford Economics believes that the Mozambican economy will record near-zero growth of 0.3 per cent this year, despite the robust growth recorded in the final quarter of 2025.
This observation constitutes a revision of the previous projection of an expansion of 2.5 per cent that the firm had forecast.
According to the firm’s analysis recently made public, “unfortunately, we foresee Mozambique’s economy facing another difficult year in 2026. Preliminary projections show that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to be a mere 0.3 per cent this year, below the previous forecast of 2.5 per cent.”
Oxford Economics notes that the factors behind the downward revision of the country’s 2026 GDP forecast are related to the “recent floods, which destroyed large areas of crops and infrastructure, as well as the announced closure of the Mozal aluminium smelter, and the temporary halt for scheduled maintenance of Eni’s Coral Sul floating LNG (liquefied natural gas) platform.”
According to the firm, it means that the country’s economic growth is expected to be constrained by “reduced exports, employment, production and consumer expenditure. According to the latest IMF report on debt sustainability, the country is already in debt distress, and its policies are unsustainable.”
It is also likely, the firm says, that an agreement on a new IMF programme in the second quarter of this year will include “painful fiscal consolidation, domestic debt restructuring and currency devaluation at an early stage of the programme. These measures will weigh on economic growth in the short term.”
The country’s GDP in the final quarter of 2025 showed an expansion of 4.67 per cent compared with the same period in 2024.
In the final quarter of 2025, the Mozambican economy managed to reverse four consecutive quarters of contraction, growing by 4.67%. However, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE), this was not enough to prevent an overall decline of 0.52 per cent for the year.
(AIM)
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