Carregamento de gas natural na bacia do Rovuma, província de Cabo Delgado em Moçambique, do empreendimento Coral Sul
Maputo, 8 Jul (AIM) – Mozambican Government forecasts an average economic growth of 4.9 percent in 2027, influenced especially by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) megaprojects.
According to the Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario 2027–2029 – approved by the Council of Ministers (cabinet) – the average economic growth may reach 9.5 percent in 2029 with the production of LNG.
The document, which serves as the basis for drafting the Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) for 2027, is crucial for macro-fiscal and budgetary programming, as it establishes “the fiscal strategy, macro-economic and fiscal projections, and global expenditure ceilings for a three-year horizon.”
According to the government spokesperson and Minister of State Administration, Inocêncio Impissa, speaking to reporters on Tuesday after a meeting of the Council of Ministers, the medium-term fiscal scenario 2027–2029 establishes a prudent, realistic, and executable fiscal framework oriented toward macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of public finances.
“The government expects a gradual recovery of economic activity within a context still marked by external challenges, including restrictive financial conditions, commodity price volatility, and climate risks. In the baseline scenario, real GDP [Gross Domestic Product] is expected to grow by an average of around 4.9 percent per year with gas and 2.1 percent without gas, potentially reaching 9.5 percent in 2029 with the entry into production of liquefied natural gas projects”, he said.
According to Impissa, from a fiscal standpoint, the approved scenario reflects the government’s commitment to the gradual consolidation of public finances.
To achieve this, he said, the government will reinforce “the mobilization of internal revenues, the improvement of public expenditure efficiency, and the containment of structural pressures, with a particular emphasis on the wage bill and debt service charges.”
“The government will continue to prioritize selective and phased public investment oriented toward strategic sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, energy, human capital, and the structural transformation of the economy,” he declared.
The document also forecasts a gradual reduction in inflation, which is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2026 to around 5.5 percent in 2029.
“The government also predicts the stabilization and gradual reduction of public debt, which is expected to decrease from 72.2 percent of GDP in 2025 to 67.1 percent in 2029. Debt service should also reduce significantly, reflecting a more prudent management with the lengthening of maturities, greater recourse to concessional financing, and a reduction in exposure to short-term instruments”, he said.
Mozambique has now three approved development megaprojects for exploring the LNG reserves of the Rovuma Basin, off the coast of Cabo Delgado. These projects are among the largest in the world.
These include the TotalEnergies project, which is resuming, and another by ExxonMobil (18 million tons per year (mtpa), valued at 30 billion dollars, awaiting a final investment decision, both located on the Afungi Peninsula.
Added to these is Italy’s Eni, which has been producing around seven mtpa since 2022 from the Coral Sul floating platform. This operations ledger will be doubled starting in 2028 with a second platform, Coral Norte, representing an investment of 7.2 billion dollars (6.2 billion euros), alongside plans for a third unit.
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